The EUR/USD got hit hard last week and we can’t bet on a recovery just yet. I’m looking to enter at resistance at 1.1700 with a stop loss at 1.1850 and a profit target of 1.1500.
EUR/USD 240 min Chart - EUR/USD is Tumbling
QE Just Won’t Die
The market had well and truly priced in the end of QE. As it turns out ECB President Mario Draghi had other ideas. In what was a very dovish press conference, Draghi did announce an end to QE. However, it came with a number of caveats that suggested the bond buying would only end when the economic data backed it up. He also went on to say that there appeared little chance of a rate hike any time soon.
That sank the EUR/USD as the market really wasn’t prepared for such a big about-face. The pain was compounded by the fact that the USD kept on rising. Stronger than anticipated retail sales data sent the USD sent it sky high, which was compounded by a rate hike from the FOMC.
This week things taper off on the data front, but most of the interest surrounds the current trade wars. On Friday the US officially announced $50 Billion worth of tariffs against China. The Chinese quickly retaliated with tariffs of their own. The USD could potentially weaken so it’s one to watch early in the week.
Key Economic Data
Last week, there were plenty of big economic events. However, this week things are a fair bit quieter. We will be getting manufacturing PMI from Germany on Friday, which is really the only major announcement. Meanwhile, the US has homes sales and building permit data.
ECB President Mario Draghi will be speaking again this week, however, I wouldn’t expect much of an update on what we heard last week. Rarely, does he give much away at all and certainly not outside of an ECB press conference.
The EUR/USD is currently in a range between 1.1500 and 1.1800. However, it’s clear that we are pressing to the lower end. If we do pull back to 1.1700 that appears to be a good risk/reward for a short position.
If price breaks below 1.1500 then we are well and truly back into bear market territory.
EUR/USD - Key Levels
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