Euro Dollar Technical Analysis

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  • The ECB to Drive EUR/USD Momentum 4 March 2019

    The EUR/USD has another important week ahead with the ECB interest rate decision likely to be the key event. Economic conditions remain stagnate in the Eurozone and that might force the ECB to shift their monetary policy from neutral back to dovish.

  • The EUR/USD Weakens Ahead of the ECB Minutes 18 February 2019

    The EUR/USD is back trading at near two-year lows and testing strong support after an ECB official suggested there could be some more bank loans ahead given the state of the Eurozone. This week ahead will feature the ECB minutes which will potentially shed more light on the situation.

  • A Weak Greenback Boosting the EUR/USD 4 February 2019

    The EUR/USD has been stronger over the last week after the fallout from the FOMC hurt the USD. Jerome Powell and the US Federal Reserve have turned dovish and that has seen the USD weaken considerably.

  • ECB Rates Decision to Drive the EUR/USD 21 January 2019

    The EUR/USD has had a rough week as price deteriorated into the Friday and the momentum is now to the downside. This week, all the attention will firmly be on the ECB meeting and what ECB President Mario Draghi has in mind for the next rate hike.

  • ECB Minutes in Focus for the EUR/USD 7 January 2019

    The EUR/USD has been holding relatively steady in recent weeks as the volatility and turmoil has certainly taken its toll across the financial markets. This week, we will be looking for any hint of a change in monetary policy from the ECB in their minutes, while at the same time watching the direction of the USD closely.

  • FOMC in Focus for the EUR/USD 17 December 2018

    The EUR/USD has the potential to get a bit of boost this week as most of the attention will be on the FOMC. While the Fed is expected to raise US interest rate in December, the outlook might not be a hawkish as many have previously thought.

  • Trade to Drive the EUR/USD 3 December 2018

    The EUR/USD is likely to receive a bit of a boost this week as markets absorb the fallout from the G20 and more specifically the agreement between the US and China on trade. As it stands the two countries will be looking to work towards a deal and for now, the proposed tariff increases that were set to rise in January will be put on hold.

  • The EUR/USD Waiting on Global News 19 November 2018

    The EUR/USD has seen a decent bounce off the lows, which was largely driven by weakness in the Greenback. With Thanksgiving ahead and a lack of top-tier data, markets will be driven by global news and the current sentiment, which to date has largely been risk-off.

  • FOMC to Drive the EUR/USD 5 November 2018

    The EUR/USD might well have staged a bit of a rally on Friday, but the trend is still strongly to the downside at the moment. This week it is the FOMC and their interest rate decision which will see the EUR/USD put under even more pressure.

  • ECB to Drive the EUR/USD 21 October 2018

    The EUR/USD has been drifting lower over the course of the week, led predominately by a stronger USD. This week the ECB get their chance to counter what was a hawkish FED as they issue their thoughts on monetary policy and present the official interest rate statement.

  • The EUR/USD Following the Greenback’s Lead 15 October 2018

    The EUR/USD continues to get pushed around by the USD as all the news coming out at the moment is very much centred around the USA. Last week it was rising yields that kept the pressure on world markets as stocks have been falling. It looks likes we might have more of the same this week as well.

  • The EUR/USD in Falling on US Yields 7 October 2018

    The EUR/USD was on the slide last week, after the yield on US 10 year note, broke out to new highs. That saw a fair bit of interest in the USD and as a result, many of the majors fell away sharply. This week we look to the ECB minutes for some potential support to potentially halt the slide.

  • The EUR/USD Fails at Resistance 1 October 2018

    The EUR/USD was looking bullish coming into last week. Unfortunately for the bulls, the USD had other ideas and the EUR/USD once again fell away sharply. This week we have US employment that might just give the USD another kick forward.

  • The EUR/USD in Breakout Mode 24 September 2018

    The EUR/USD staged a big recovery last week as it broke through a number of big resistance levels. We can largely thank a weak USD and we will once again need to monitor some very important monetary policy announcements in the next few days. Namely the FOMC.

  • More Tariffs To Impact the EUR/USD 17 September 2018

    The EUR/USD was trying its best to regain some strength, but all that changed on Friday when the USD found a bid and closed strongly. Again it will be the USD that dictates the direction of the EUR/USD as more trade war headlines continue to hit the wires to start the week.

  • Tariffs Still Weighing on The EUR/USD 10 September 2018

    The EUR/USD has continued the slide and there might be more ahead this week. The Greenback got a bit of a boost last week after a stronger than anticipated jobs number out of the US.

  • US Employment The Key to The EUR/USD 3 September 2018

    The EUR/USD fell away sharply towards the end of the trading week as the USD finally found its feet. There was plenty of resistance holding down price and as the US gears up for another employment report, there is a chance of more selling to come.

  • The Greenback to Drive The EUR/USD 27 August 2018

    The EUR/USD has done an about-face over the last trading week. We have previously seen the bears continue to beat down the Euro over the last few months, but thanks to a weak USD, things changed rapidly. The EUR/USD is now bullish, but this week will be the real test.

  • ECB Minutes to Drive The EUR/USD 20 August 2018

    The EUR/USD has been in the red for a number of weeks now, although the shared currency managed to dig itself out of a hole towards the end of the week. Unfortunately, looking ahead the key event will once again be the ECB minutes, in which a dovish ECB President Mario Draghi will feature heavily.

  • The EUR/USD Under Pressure 13 August 2018

    The EUR/USD was in freefall last Friday, thanks in the most part to a big rally in the USD. The Greenback got a boost from some strong GDP figures and the bulls took control. The EUR/USD sank below the 1.1500 level, before taking on 1.1400 and is now firmly in bear market territory.

  • Trade Wars Hanging Over the EUR/USD 8 August 2018

    The EUR/USD has been falling quite sharply in the last week. And for the most part, it has been thanks to a strong USD. However, it appears there are still concerns around the US-China trade wars, which might well weigh on the USD this week.

  • Central Banks Again Drive the EUR/USD 31 July 2018

    The EUR/USD hasn’t managed to hold up above the 1.1700 level, as the USD continues to gain momentum. In a week that features both the FOMC interest rate decision and US employment, we might well see the Euro under even more pressure.

  • Trade Wars Helping the EUR/USD 23 July 2018

    The EUR/USD is managing to grind its way higher, helped mostly by the weak USD. US President Donald Trump is weighing on the USD as he continues to threaten both China and Europe. We also have the ECB out this week, with much attention on when the first official rate rise will be.

  • Geopolitics and the Fed to Drive The EUR/USD 16 July 2018

    The EUR/USD continues to be on the back foot, in a week that has a number of important events. We have a US-Russia summit, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to testify in front of Congress and Eurozone CPI.

  • Can The EUR/USD Bounce Back? 18 June 2018

    ECB President Mario Draghi sank the Euro last week when his dovish outlook sent investors and traders fleeing. That went hand-hand with a rising USD thanks to some strong economic data. This week traders will be wondering if in fact the EUR/USD can recover or if it is the start of more selling to come.

  • The EUR/USD Facing its Biggest Moment 11 June 2018

    This is looming as one of the biggest weeks for the EUR/USD in many years. The ECB will meet to discuss the prospect of winding up QE. This has been on the agenda for many months and it looks like June is finally the month the ECB will take action.

  • Politics Shakes The EUR/USD 4 June 2018

    Last week saw more political dramas shake-up the EUR/USD. After Italian politics was thrust back into the limelight, the Euro sold off hard, amid fears of another crisis. Some wrangling behind the scenes helped stabilize Italy and that saved the Euro in the short-term. However, there are still more worries ahead.

  • The EUR/USD Might Bounce on QE Tapering 28 May 2018

    It’s been nothing but downside for the EUR/USD in recent weeks. However, there might be a glimmer of hope ahead as news late last week suggested the ECB will look to taper QE at their June policy meeting. This week we also have a number of big economic data releases including US Employment and Eurozone CPI which will be key drivers of price action.

  • The EUR/USD Continues to Tumble 21 May 2018

    There appears to be little that can halt the EUR/USD slide at the moment. The shared currency posted losses all last week and support levels are falling on a daily basis. This week the attention will be back on ECB President Mario Draghi as we get an insight into the most recent ECB meeting. Draghi was dovish at the time which is an indicator of perhaps more downside this week.

  • The EUR/USD Finds Some Support Ahead of CPI 14 May 2018

    The EUR/USD finally managed to stem the bleeding last week, after what has been a steep decline in the shared currency. For the most part the weakness has come on the back of a rising USD. As the US economy continues to improve the Greenback continues to see money flowing back into it. This week is a big test for the Eurozone as we get a look at inflation, which has been one of the key areas of interest for both traders and central banks.

  • The EUR/USD Downtrend is Gaining Steam? 7 May 2018

    The momentum in the EUR/USD is starting to gain steam. Unfortunately, for Euro bulls it is clearly to the downside. During the week we saw a slightly dovish FOMC and a mixed US employment report, however, the EUR/USD continued to fall. That is suggesting the USD buying is strong and we might very well have more on the way this week.

  • Time to Sell the EUR/USD? 30 April 2018

    The last few weeks have seen the tide turn for the USD. What was initially a bearish Greenback has now turned to a raging bull. This week brings about the FOMC interest rate decision and the US employment report. A hawkish Fed or a strong non-farm-payroll number might just see more upside ahead in the USD, which will cause the EUR/USD to tumble.

  • Can the ECB Spark the EUR/USD? 23 April 2018

    The last few weeks have been highlighted by a number of geopolitical events. That has been putting some pressure on the USD. By late last week, it appears that those fears have been alleviated. Now the focus turns to the ECB as they are set to release their next interest rate decision this week. However, ECB President Mario Draghi might throw cold water on any chance of a reduction in bond purchases.

  • Geopolitics to Drive the EUR/USD 16 April 2018

    Last week it was all about the US-China trade wars. As tensions finally eased, US President picked out his next target and it was Syria. Over the weekend the President authorized an air strike against Syrian targets in response to a chemical weapons attack. The news will likely shake-up markets on Monday and see a flight-to-safety. The USD could well be under pressure early.

  • Trade Wars to Drive the EUR/USD 9 April 2018

    Last week all the focus was firmly on the ongoing trade war between the US and China. A series of tit-for-tat comments is hurting the fortune of investors and increasing the volatility of the USD. There are a number of key economic data releases this week, but they all might be overshadowed by a tweet from US President Donald Trump.

  • Trump Shaking up the Markets 26 March 2018

    Last week all the action was no doubt in the US. Early on we got our first official interest rate rise. It was the one we had all been waiting for but all we ended up with was a falling USD which was a surprise. Then US President Donald Trump sparked markets, by proposing massive tariffs against China. Equity markets bore the brunt of it and we could be in for more downside in Monday.

  • Powell the Key to the EUR/USD this Week 19 March 2018

    The EUR/USD saw some downside in late trade last week. Perhaps that’s in anticipation of a coming rate rise at this meeting of the FOMC. This week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell takes control in what is slated to be the first of three rate hikes this year. This means we are likely going to see some volatility in the USD and the EUR/USD.

  • Inflation the Key Issue for the EUR/USD 12 March 2018

    US markets saw a strong rally on Friday thanks to a better than expected jobs report. Over the course of the week, the USD finally managed to lift itself off the canvas and find some buyers. That meant the EUR/USD started to turn around and is now looking a little bearish. This week we have inflation out of both the US and Eurozone which will be the key to the week.

  • ECB Back in Focus for the EUR/USD 5 March 2018

    The USD fell away late in the week as US President Donald Trump proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum. That meant the EUR/USD found support and rallied into the close. This week our attention is firmly on the ECB as they have their latest European Central Bank Policy Meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi will be speaking after the announcement and much of the focus will be on his thoughts on quantitative easing.

  • Fed Chair Powell to Drive the EUR/USD 26 February 2018

    The USD continues to be the big driver of the EUR/USD. This week we will hear from new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell when he testifies in front of Congress. That is going to be important for the short-term direction of the US Dollar as we will get a better idea of how his views will differ from his predecessor Janet Yellen.

  • Central Bankers the Key to the EUR/USD 19 February 2018

    The week ahead is going to be dominated by Central Bankers, or more accurately, what has previously been said by the Central Bankers. We have both the FOMC minutes and the ECB minutes giving us an insight into their monetary policy decisions. There are changes ahead for both as the US looks to raise rates, while the ECB is wanting to move back to normal monetary policy. This could well bring significant volatility to the EUR/USD.

  • US CPI to Drive the EUR/USD 12 February 2018

    The USD appears that it has turned the corner and is pushing higher. That has started to weigh on the majors across the board, including the EUR/USD. This week the Greenback has a number of key fundamental data releases, with none bigger than CPI. That will mean the EUR/USD will be driven by the USD which might mean there is downside ahead.

  • Staying Bullish on the EUR/USD 5 February 2018

    The USD got a bit of a shakeup on Friday after US employment came in better than expected. That slowed down the uptrend that we’ve seen in the EUR/USD. The week ahead looks like it’s going to be interesting for stocks as there is the potential for a big sell-off. It also looks like the USD is turning around which will have a big say on the future of the EUR/USD in the short-term.

  • Dollar Weakness Still Driving the EUR/USD 30 January 2018

    The EUR/USD has been on a sharp uptrend in recent times. That’s been no doubt thanks to the very weak USD. This week the Greenback faces another stiff test as we have the FOMC Statement as well as US non-farm payrolls, which make it a highly fundamentally driven trade.

  • Will the ECB Rally the EUR/USD? 22 January 2018

    The EUR/USD has been moving sharply higher in recent weeks. The ECB will be heavily in focus this week as we get another look at the QE program and whether or not it will be ultimately wound down. The continuing US Government Shutdown saga is also likely to weigh on the USD.

  • The EUR/USD Targeting 1.25 15 January 2018

    The EUR/USD has been on a tear in the last few trading sessions. We’ve finally broken out above key resistance and we are looking at a major move towards 1.2500. ECB minutes were the spark last week and there is more important data that will shape trade this week.

  • The Bull Run in the EUR/USD Continues 8 January 2018

    The EUR/USD has been one of the strongest performers over the holiday break as the USD continues to plummet. Ever since US President Donald Trump’s tax cuts passed, the USD has been in the red. The EUR/USD will again be in the spotlight this week as the ECB release its monthly minutes. We also get an insight in the the US economy with US CPI.

  • Tax Cuts to Drive the EUR/USD 18 December 2017

    The EUR/USD had a bit of a bounce last week, only for it to get smacked straight back to where it came from. A dovish FOMC update that came hand-in-hand with a US rate hike, didn’t please traders and the USD felt some pressure. The final week before the Christmas break sees US President Donald Trump's Tax Cuts in focus as there is every chance of significant progress. This will be a huge boost to the US economy and the USD.

  • Central Banks to Drive the EUR/USD 11 December 2017

    The EUR/USD has certainly been in bear mode over the last few weeks as the USD has been finding some strength. This week all the focus is on central banks. We have interest rate announcements from both the FOMC and ECB, which will shape the direction of markets.

  • The USD to Get a Boost from Tax Reform 4 December 2017

    It was a wild ride last week for the EUR/USD, with choppy market action. Some headlines regarding US Donald Trump and his relationship with Russia spooked markets, although it was eventually proven that the claims were unfounded. This week we face non-farm payrolls and the continued progress of US President Trump’s tax reform.

  • The EUR/USD Turns Bullish With USD Weakness 27 November 2017

    It might have been a short trading week with Thanksgiving in the US, however markets decided to get busy early on. The weak USD was really the story of the trading week as the FOMC minutes were dovish and have cast doubt on future rate rises. There is some important data out this week including Eurozone CPI which will help shape the trading week.

  • Central Bank Watch for the EUR/USD 20 November 2017

    It was a very action packed week for the EUR/USD as the big downtrend that we’ve been on abruptly changed course. The buyers came in with a rush and took control, pushing the Euro right back to the top of its previous trading range. This week central bank minutes will be the focus in what will be a shortened trading week, because of Thanksgiving in the US.

  • CPI the Key Driver of the Euro 13 November 2017

    Last week was a quiet week for forex traders as economic data was lighter than usual. That’s about to change as we have some major data that is going to drive the EUR/USD. There is CPI data out from the Eurozone and the US which will shape the direction of trade, while a special ECB conference will also potentially ruffle some feathers.

  • The EUR/USD Poised to Break Key Support 6 November 2017

    Last week was a big one on the news front as we had the FOMC and non-farm payrolls out of the US. The EUR/USD kept on sliding and that has been good for us as we have been able to take out some of our profit targets in the last few weeks. However we are putting in a bit of a base at the moment and there is some chance of a period of consolidation this week.

  • FOMC & Non-Farm Payrolls Put the USD in Focus 30 October 2017

    Last week was huge for the EUR/USD as we finally saw the big down move that we have been predicting for a few weeks now and we comfortably took out our profit target. The ECB decided it was time to reduce their bond purchases and that sent the Euro tumbling to 1.1600. This week it faces even more headwinds as the FOMC meet to discuss US monetary policy before non-farm payroll data gets released on Friday.

  • USD is on the Charge on ECB Week 23 October 2017

    Friday was a big one for the USD. US President Donald Trump and his much hyped tax reforms finally started to get some traction and as a result the USD has begun to rip higher. That put the majors under pressure and the EUR/USD continued the slide that we have been talking about over the past few weeks.

  • Can the USD Regain its Mojo? 16 October 2017

    The story over the last few weeks has really been more about the USD than the EUR. Again the news flow was dominated by the potential for rate hikes in the US as we saw FOMC minutes released along with a weaker than anticipated CPI number. That has been weakening the USD, however the trend is still to the upside.

  • Is the EUR/USD About to Crack 1.1700 Support? 9 October 2017

    The USD has certainly been strong in recent weeks however on Friday it ran into a less than impressive jobs report from the U.S. The American economy went backwards, losing 33,000 jobs in September, and that put pressure on the USD to the downside. However the question for traders is just how long will that last or will we resume our bearish trend in the EUR/USD?

  • The USD is Ripping Higher Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls 2 October 2017

    The story of last week had to be how the US Dollar looks to have finally turned the momentum and is looking decidedly bullish. After a long period of decline, the FOMC and US Federal Reserve Chairman are starting to talk up the potential for an interest rate rise sooner rather than later. That has meant the buyers are coming in fast for the USD and all the majors have been selling off.

  • FOMC Fallout & German Elections Driving EURUSD 25 September 2017

    The FOMC last week was a huge one in the context of the USD. The Fed now looks like it’s going to be raising interest rates ahead of schedule. That has firmly put the USD on notice and we might potentially see a turnaround in what has been a significant downtrend. We’ve also got the German election that appears to have handed the incumbents a victory, but it certainly wasn’t convincing.

  • FOMC to Drive the USD This Week 18 September 2017

    It’s been a wild ride on forex markets last week as we have been dealing with hurricanes in the US and North Korea continuing to pose a threat. Over the weekend tensions seemed to fade as there have been no more headlines from Kim Jong-un, which leaves markets to get back to business as usual. This week we have yet another instalment from US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen as the FOMC releases its latest interest rate decision.

  • Will the USD Continue its Slide? 11 September 2017

    The EUR/USD really started to get fired up last week and it’s no surprise that we are looking for a test of the highs. The ECB meeting was the spark that traders were waiting for and even though there was no talk of an immediate taper to QE, Mario Draghi appeared to be bullish enough to get the Euro rallying up above the 1.2000 mark and beyond.

  • ECB Press Conference live Streaming 4 September 2017

    The press conference is one of the most important events in the European economic event calendar...

  • EUR/USD Looking to Regain Momentum Ahead of the ECB 7 September 2017

    The EUR/USD really started to get things going last week, before running into some trouble on Friday when the USD strangely rebounded after a less than impressive nonfarm payroll number. And just when we thought things might quieten down, North Korea have tested a hydrogen bomb over the weekend which has sent the safe-havens rallying once again.

  • Fallout from Jackson Hole 28 August 2017

    The EUR/USD finally managed to break back above the 1.1900 that has been holding it down in recent weeks after both ECB President Mario Draghi and the Fed's Janet Yellen spoke at the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole. While the speeches were a bit of a let down for traders, there was a short and sharp reaction highlighted by USD weakness.

  • Focus on Jackson Hole for EUR/USD 21 August 2017

    The EUR/USD continued to bounce off the 1.1700 level as buyers kept on coming in propping up the currency pair even as a slew of economic data continued to put pressure on it. This week the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole comes to the attention of traders and investors worldwide.

  • EUR/USD to Resume its Rally 14 August 2017

    The EUR/USD was heavily influenced by geopolitical news last week, specifically President Donald Trump and his battles with North Korea. This week we have a string of data to contend with and we should expect to see a degree of retracement with many of the safe-haven currencies. Longer term we’re still bullish on the Euro and will continue to trade it accordingly.

  • The EUR/USD Crashes after NFP 7 August 2017

    Last week was a good one for our EUR/USD trade, hitting the profit target as the momentum in the Euro continued. However by Friday the eyes of the trading world were on the US employment data and they came in strong, putting some momentum back into a struggling USD.

  • EUR/USD Powers Through 1.1600 24 July 2017

    As expected it was another bullish week for the EUR/USD as the currency pair powered through 1.1600 showing no signs of weakness. Mario Draghi did his best to taper expectations, but traders weren’t interested. USD weakness across the board, only added to the bullish tone.

  • EUR/USD looking Bullish Headed in the ECB Meeting 16 July 2017

    It was a big week on the data front for both the Euro and US Dollar as a number of key elements continue to fall into place that will shape sentiment going forward. All eyes this week are on the ECB to see if there are any changes to interest rates or at the very least any new developments in their outlook. We’re still maintaining our bullish bias in the EUR/USD with any positive economic news likely to trigger a further leg higher.

  • Will the EUR/USD Reach the 1.16 Target? 10 July 2017

    An ascending triangle has developed and could lead to a sharp move in either direction. The resistance level at 1.146 was reinforced last week – but if it breaks we should see 1.16 quite quickly. On the other hand, short term traders are long of the Euro and 1.13 is an obvious stop loss level. A break below this level would see a sharp selloff as longs are liquidated.

  • A Bullish Breakout for the Euro 3 July 2017

    Mario Draghi took the market by surprise with hawkish comments that sent the Euro soaring. The market was beginning to lose patience and even to turn bearish on the Euro. A lower high has set up a potential retracement to 1.13, where traders are bound to buy the Euro again. If they don’t that would be concerning for Euro bulls.

  • Is it time to listen to Mario Draghi and buy the Euro? 28 June 2017

    EUR/USD pushes to 12 month highs while all eyes on Central Bankers. An optimistic Mario Draghi, hawkish on rates.

  • A Well-Established Range 26 June 2017

    The EURUSD is stuck in a range between 1.11 and 1.13, as market activity tapers off. The bullish case for the Euro is still in place, but there is little news or data scheduled for this week that is likely to trigger that next leg higher. It may in fact be a false break in a quiet market that sets the next move up.

  • The Retracement Loses Steam 19 June 2017

    The USD strengthened after Janet Yellen hiked rates, but weakened late in the week when weaker than expected consumer sentiment data was released. The deeper retracement we were looking for is now looking less certain. Longer term the fundamentals are still pointing to Euro strength, though it may take weeks for the trend to resume. For the now the pair remain rangebound.

  • The Fed is still on Track 15 June 2017

    The Fed hiked rates 25 basis points as expected, and also reiterated their intention to hike again this year. This is positive for the USD in the short term, but may be problematic in the long term given weaker than expected data. We are likely to see a move toward 1.10 until data or newsflow change sentiment.

  • The Euro has Lost Momentum 12 June 2017

    European economic data didn’t do enough to inspire the market, and then the UK election added to downward pressure on the Pound, Euro and other European currencies. We are now waiting for the Fed’s rate decision to show us the next move. We may be witnessing a bull flag, or we may see a short-term top and a deeper correction. European fundamentals are straightforward, so the market will be looking to the US for direction.

  • The Euro’s Next Leg Higher has Begun 5 June 2017

    The EUR/USD appears to have started its next up leg, however there are very few other clues in the charts. This will be a busy week for data and political news flow in Europe and the US, so that’s what will drive the price action. While the trend is up and sentiment is weak (bullish) for the Euro, we still favor long trades. There is a case to be made for a sharp selloff at some point, but that will need a catalyst before it happens.

  • Consolidating Ahead of Key US Data 29 May 2017

    The EUR/USD is consolidating, and the rally may soon continue, or we may see a deeper correction before the next up leg. The key data this week will be US employment data which will indicate whether the Fed may hold off on a rate hike in June. If the data is convincing, we’ll see a bigger directional move, but if it is difficult to interpret, we will probably see increased volatility in the next few weeks.

  • Dollar Bulls are Liquidating 22 May 2017

    The strong Euro rally is now causing USD bulls to liquidate their positions. While the Euro is now overbought, it does look set to test 1.14 and the 1.16 in the coming weeks. However, a move to those levels may need a deeper correction to 1.0875, and that may take longer to play out. The data expected this week is unlikely to affect the market, though there is always the chance of unexpected political news.

  • A Critical Test for the Euro 15 May 2017

    The Euro drifted lower as expected, before rebounding to test strong resistance levels. This week we will see just how strong the Euro really is. It’s more likely that the pair will consolidate over the next few weeks, but if the USD really is in trouble we may see a strong Euro rally from these levels.

  • How Big will the Correction be? 8 May 2017

    The Euro surged to 1.1023 after Emmanuel Macron's decisive victory over Marine le Pen in the French presidential election. However, Macrons’ victory was priced in, and the market is now looking for a pullback for the Euro. The big question is how far that pullback might be, especially given that short-term traders are now heavily short of the Euro.

  • EUR/USD in Consolidation Mode 1 May 2017

    The Euro/US dollar are consolidating after a strong rally. While the Euro has a lot in its favor, it is expensive and overbought. In this environment traders should wait for opportunities rather than trying to second guess the next move.

  • French Election Sends Euro Soaring 24 April 2017

    French election results have carried the Euro to an important resistance level at 1.0908. This week’s action is likely to be driven by rhetoric around the second round of the election and the US legislative agenda rather than by data.

  • Geo-Political Risks Rising Again 17 April 2017

    The technical picture hasn’t changed much, but fundamentals have deteriorated a little for the Euro, and sentiment may now be setting up a USD rally. Price action on the intraday charts reflects uncertainty and risk aversion.

  • Sentiment is now almost neutral 10 April 2017

    The Euro has fallen for the past two weeks and we now wait to see whether support can be established. Sentiment has swung back toward neutral and the next week or two will be critical in determining the longer-term direction.

  • The start of a new downtrend for the Euro? 3 April 2017

    As expected, the Euro rally ran finally lost momentum and is now looking for support between 1.0605 and 1.067. We may see a bounce in the next few days and then an indication of whether the longer-term downtrend, or the medium-term uptrend will continue.

  • The End of the Trump Trade? 20 March 2017

    The Euro extended its gains as Trump’s healthcare bill failed. This leaves the Euro on the verge of turning bullish on the longer-term charts, whilst also very overbought in the short term. Look for a potential correction back to 1.0740 this week, followed by decision time for the Euro bulls.

  • Too Many Dollar Bulls 27 March 2017

    The Euro had its biggest rally in weeks as slightly bullish news for the Euro forced USD bulls to liquidate positions. The Euro is now overbought and should reverse some of those gains unless unexpected news changes the outlook.

  • A Bear Market Rally for the Euro 13 March 2017

    The Euro has broken out of a trading range, but is losing momentum at 1.0720. The overall bias is still bearish, but we will need to watch the price action carefully to find the best entry point. A retracement to 1.0624 may give us a clue as to the direction for the week. If the pair can hold above that level it would be bullish for the Euro, whereas a break below 1.0624 will be USD bullish.

  • Waiting for News and Data 6 March 2017

    The market is stuck in a tight range ahead of key data and potential news flow affecting both the USD and the EUR. Any unexpected data or news is likely to trigger a breakout and increased volatility. While the bias is still bearish, the larger moves may well be to the upside if long dollar positions are liquidated.

  • Dollar Strength Being Called into Question 23 February 2017

    The market is beginning to question just how strong the dollar should be. While the trend remains down, sharp moves are being triggered by minor events which indicate that traders are just not sure. Volatility is expected to increase as US fiscal policy is debated, while political risk in Europe adds fuel to the fire.

  • EUR/USD Analysis - 17 February 2017 17 February 2017

    On Wednesday, the Euro rallied. The rally pulled back from resistance at 1.0677 and is currently establishing support at 1.0640. The market’s outlook has been bullish for the dollar. But Trump administration actions may change this. US policy is at the focus of market's attention in the coming months.

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