Euro Dollar Technical Analysis

  • Tax Cuts to Drive the EUR/USD 18 December 2017

    The EUR/USD had a bit of a bounce last week, only for it to get smacked straight back to where it came from. A dovish FOMC update that came hand-in-hand with a US rate hike, didn’t please traders and the USD felt some pressure. The final week before the Christmas break sees US President Donald Trump's Tax Cuts in focus as there is every chance of significant progress. This will be a huge boost to the US economy and the USD.

  • Central Banks to Drive the EUR/USD 11 December 2017

    The EUR/USD has certainly been in bear mode over the last few weeks as the USD has been finding some strength. This week all the focus is on central banks. We have interest rate announcements from both the FOMC and ECB, which will shape the direction of markets.

  • The USD to Get a Boost from Tax Reform 4 December 2017

    It was a wild ride last week for the EUR/USD, with choppy market action. Some headlines regarding US Donald Trump and his relationship with Russia spooked markets, although it was eventually proven that the claims were unfounded. This week we face non-farm payrolls and the continued progress of US President Trump’s tax reform.

  • The EUR/USD Turns Bullish With USD Weakness 27 November 2017

    It might have been a short trading week with Thanksgiving in the US, however markets decided to get busy early on. The weak USD was really the story of the trading week as the FOMC minutes were dovish and have cast doubt on future rate rises. There is some important data out this week including Eurozone CPI which will help shape the trading week.

  • Central Bank Watch for the EUR/USD 20 November 2017

    It was a very action packed week for the EUR/USD as the big downtrend that we’ve been on abruptly changed course. The buyers came in with a rush and took control, pushing the Euro right back to the top of its previous trading range. This week central bank minutes will be the focus in what will be a shortened trading week, because of Thanksgiving in the US.

  • CPI the Key Driver of the Euro 13 November 2017

    Last week was a quiet week for forex traders as economic data was lighter than usual. That’s about to change as we have some major data that is going to drive the EUR/USD. There is CPI data out from the Eurozone and the US which will shape the direction of trade, while a special ECB conference will also potentially ruffle some feathers.

  • The EUR/USD Poised to Break Key Support 6 November 2017

    Last week was a big one on the news front as we had the FOMC and non-farm payrolls out of the US. The EUR/USD kept on sliding and that has been good for us as we have been able to take out some of our profit targets in the last few weeks. However we are putting in a bit of a base at the moment and there is some chance of a period of consolidation this week.

  • FOMC & Non-Farm Payrolls Put the USD in Focus 30 October 2017

    Last week was huge for the EUR/USD as we finally saw the big down move that we have been predicting for a few weeks now and we comfortably took out our profit target. The ECB decided it was time to reduce their bond purchases and that sent the Euro tumbling to 1.1600. This week it faces even more headwinds as the FOMC meet to discuss US monetary policy before non-farm payroll data gets released on Friday.

  • USD is on the Charge on ECB Week 23 October 2017

    Friday was a big one for the USD. US President Donald Trump and his much hyped tax reforms finally started to get some traction and as a result the USD has begun to rip higher. That put the majors under pressure and the EUR/USD continued the slide that we have been talking about over the past few weeks.

  • Can the USD Regain its Mojo? 16 October 2017

    The story over the last few weeks has really been more about the USD than the EUR. Again the news flow was dominated by the potential for rate hikes in the US as we saw FOMC minutes released along with a weaker than anticipated CPI number. That has been weakening the USD, however the trend is still to the upside.

  • Is the EUR/USD About to Crack 1.1700 Support? 9 October 2017

    The USD has certainly been strong in recent weeks however on Friday it ran into a less than impressive jobs report from the U.S. The American economy went backwards, losing 33,000 jobs in September, and that put pressure on the USD to the downside. However the question for traders is just how long will that last or will we resume our bearish trend in the EUR/USD?

  • The USD is Ripping Higher Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls 2 October 2017

    The story of last week had to be how the US Dollar looks to have finally turned the momentum and is looking decidedly bullish. After a long period of decline, the FOMC and US Federal Reserve Chairman are starting to talk up the potential for an interest rate rise sooner rather than later. That has meant the buyers are coming in fast for the USD and all the majors have been selling off.

  • FOMC Fallout & German Elections Driving EURUSD 25 September 2017

    The FOMC last week was a huge one in the context of the USD. The Fed now looks like it’s going to be raising interest rates ahead of schedule. That has firmly put the USD on notice and we might potentially see a turnaround in what has been a significant downtrend. We’ve also got the German election that appears to have handed the incumbents a victory, but it certainly wasn’t convincing.

  • FOMC to Drive the USD This Week 18 September 2017

    It’s been a wild ride on forex markets last week as we have been dealing with hurricanes in the US and North Korea continuing to pose a threat. Over the weekend tensions seemed to fade as there have been no more headlines from Kim Jong-un, which leaves markets to get back to business as usual. This week we have yet another instalment from US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen as the FOMC releases its latest interest rate decision.

  • Will the USD Continue its Slide? 11 September 2017

    The EUR/USD really started to get fired up last week and it’s no surprise that we are looking for a test of the highs. The ECB meeting was the spark that traders were waiting for and even though there was no talk of an immediate taper to QE, Mario Draghi appeared to be bullish enough to get the Euro rallying up above the 1.2000 mark and beyond.

  • ECB Press Conference live Streaming 4 September 2017

    The press conference is one of the most important events in the European economic event calendar...

  • EUR/USD Looking to Regain Momentum Ahead of the ECB 7 September 2017

    The EUR/USD really started to get things going last week, before running into some trouble on Friday when the USD strangely rebounded after a less than impressive nonfarm payroll number. And just when we thought things might quieten down, North Korea have tested a hydrogen bomb over the weekend which has sent the safe-havens rallying once again.

  • Fallout from Jackson Hole 28 August 2017

    The EUR/USD finally managed to break back above the 1.1900 that has been holding it down in recent weeks after both ECB President Mario Draghi and the Fed's Janet Yellen spoke at the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole. While the speeches were a bit of a let down for traders, there was a short and sharp reaction highlighted by USD weakness.

  • Focus on Jackson Hole for EUR/USD 21 August 2017

    The EUR/USD continued to bounce off the 1.1700 level as buyers kept on coming in propping up the currency pair even as a slew of economic data continued to put pressure on it. This week the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole comes to the attention of traders and investors worldwide.

  • EUR/USD to Resume its Rally 14 August 2017

    The EUR/USD was heavily influenced by geopolitical news last week, specifically President Donald Trump and his battles with North Korea. This week we have a string of data to contend with and we should expect to see a degree of retracement with many of the safe-haven currencies. Longer term we’re still bullish on the Euro and will continue to trade it accordingly.

  • The EUR/USD Crashes after NFP 7 August 2017

    Last week was a good one for our EUR/USD trade, hitting the profit target as the momentum in the Euro continued. However by Friday the eyes of the trading world were on the US employment data and they came in strong, putting some momentum back into a struggling USD.

  • EUR/USD Powers Through 1.1600 24 July 2017

    As expected it was another bullish week for the EUR/USD as the currency pair powered through 1.1600 showing no signs of weakness. Mario Draghi did his best to taper expectations, but traders weren’t interested. USD weakness across the board, only added to the bullish tone.

  • EUR/USD looking Bullish Headed in the ECB Meeting 16 July 2017

    It was a big week on the data front for both the Euro and US Dollar as a number of key elements continue to fall into place that will shape sentiment going forward. All eyes this week are on the ECB to see if there are any changes to interest rates or at the very least any new developments in their outlook. We’re still maintaining our bullish bias in the EUR/USD with any positive economic news likely to trigger a further leg higher.

  • Will the EUR/USD Reach the 1.16 Target? 10 July 2017

    An ascending triangle has developed and could lead to a sharp move in either direction. The resistance level at 1.146 was reinforced last week – but if it breaks we should see 1.16 quite quickly. On the other hand, short term traders are long of the Euro and 1.13 is an obvious stop loss level. A break below this level would see a sharp selloff as longs are liquidated.

  • A Bullish Breakout for the Euro 3 July 2017

    Mario Draghi took the market by surprise with hawkish comments that sent the Euro soaring. The market was beginning to lose patience and even to turn bearish on the Euro. A lower high has set up a potential retracement to 1.13, where traders are bound to buy the Euro again. If they don’t that would be concerning for Euro bulls.

  • Is it time to listen to Mario Draghi and buy the Euro? 28 June 2017

    EUR/USD pushes to 12 month highs while all eyes on Central Bankers. An optimistic Mario Draghi, hawkish on rates.

  • A Well-Established Range 26 June 2017

    The EURUSD is stuck in a range between 1.11 and 1.13, as market activity tapers off. The bullish case for the Euro is still in place, but there is little news or data scheduled for this week that is likely to trigger that next leg higher. It may in fact be a false break in a quiet market that sets the next move up.

  • The Retracement Loses Steam 19 June 2017

    The USD strengthened after Janet Yellen hiked rates, but weakened late in the week when weaker than expected consumer sentiment data was released. The deeper retracement we were looking for is now looking less certain. Longer term the fundamentals are still pointing to Euro strength, though it may take weeks for the trend to resume. For the now the pair remain rangebound.

  • The Fed is still on Track 15 June 2017

    The Fed hiked rates 25 basis points as expected, and also reiterated their intention to hike again this year. This is positive for the USD in the short term, but may be problematic in the long term given weaker than expected data. We are likely to see a move toward 1.10 until data or newsflow change sentiment.

  • The Euro has Lost Momentum 12 June 2017

    European economic data didn’t do enough to inspire the market, and then the UK election added to downward pressure on the Pound, Euro and other European currencies. We are now waiting for the Fed’s rate decision to show us the next move. We may be witnessing a bull flag, or we may see a short-term top and a deeper correction. European fundamentals are straightforward, so the market will be looking to the US for direction.

  • The Euro’s Next Leg Higher has Begun 5 June 2017

    The EUR/USD appears to have started its next up leg, however there are very few other clues in the charts. This will be a busy week for data and political news flow in Europe and the US, so that’s what will drive the price action. While the trend is up and sentiment is weak (bullish) for the Euro, we still favor long trades. There is a case to be made for a sharp selloff at some point, but that will need a catalyst before it happens.

  • Consolidating Ahead of Key US Data 29 May 2017

    The EUR/USD is consolidating, and the rally may soon continue, or we may see a deeper correction before the next up leg. The key data this week will be US employment data which will indicate whether the Fed may hold off on a rate hike in June. If the data is convincing, we’ll see a bigger directional move, but if it is difficult to interpret, we will probably see increased volatility in the next few weeks.

  • Dollar Bulls are Liquidating 22 May 2017

    The strong Euro rally is now causing USD bulls to liquidate their positions. While the Euro is now overbought, it does look set to test 1.14 and the 1.16 in the coming weeks. However, a move to those levels may need a deeper correction to 1.0875, and that may take longer to play out. The data expected this week is unlikely to affect the market, though there is always the chance of unexpected political news.

  • A Critical Test for the Euro 15 May 2017

    The Euro drifted lower as expected, before rebounding to test strong resistance levels. This week we will see just how strong the Euro really is. It’s more likely that the pair will consolidate over the next few weeks, but if the USD really is in trouble we may see a strong Euro rally from these levels.

  • How Big will the Correction be? 8 May 2017

    The Euro surged to 1.1023 after Emmanuel Macron's decisive victory over Marine le Pen in the French presidential election. However, Macrons’ victory was priced in, and the market is now looking for a pullback for the Euro. The big question is how far that pullback might be, especially given that short-term traders are now heavily short of the Euro.

  • EUR/USD in Consolidation Mode 1 May 2017

    The Euro/US dollar are consolidating after a strong rally. While the Euro has a lot in its favor, it is expensive and overbought. In this environment traders should wait for opportunities rather than trying to second guess the next move.

  • French Election Sends Euro Soaring 24 April 2017

    French election results have carried the Euro to an important resistance level at 1.0908. This week’s action is likely to be driven by rhetoric around the second round of the election and the US legislative agenda rather than by data.

  • Geo-Political Risks Rising Again 17 April 2017

    The technical picture hasn’t changed much, but fundamentals have deteriorated a little for the Euro, and sentiment may now be setting up a USD rally. Price action on the intraday charts reflects uncertainty and risk aversion.

  • Sentiment is now almost neutral 10 April 2017

    The Euro has fallen for the past two weeks and we now wait to see whether support can be established. Sentiment has swung back toward neutral and the next week or two will be critical in determining the longer-term direction.

  • The start of a new downtrend for the Euro? 3 April 2017

    As expected, the Euro rally ran finally lost momentum and is now looking for support between 1.0605 and 1.067. We may see a bounce in the next few days and then an indication of whether the longer-term downtrend, or the medium-term uptrend will continue.

  • The End of the Trump Trade? 20 March 2017

    The Euro extended its gains as Trump’s healthcare bill failed. This leaves the Euro on the verge of turning bullish on the longer-term charts, whilst also very overbought in the short term. Look for a potential correction back to 1.0740 this week, followed by decision time for the Euro bulls.

  • Too Many Dollar Bulls 27 March 2017

    The Euro had its biggest rally in weeks as slightly bullish news for the Euro forced USD bulls to liquidate positions. The Euro is now overbought and should reverse some of those gains unless unexpected news changes the outlook.

  • A Bear Market Rally for the Euro 13 March 2017

    The Euro has broken out of a trading range, but is losing momentum at 1.0720. The overall bias is still bearish, but we will need to watch the price action carefully to find the best entry point. A retracement to 1.0624 may give us a clue as to the direction for the week. If the pair can hold above that level it would be bullish for the Euro, whereas a break below 1.0624 will be USD bullish.

  • Waiting for News and Data 6 March 2017

    The market is stuck in a tight range ahead of key data and potential news flow affecting both the USD and the EUR. Any unexpected data or news is likely to trigger a breakout and increased volatility. While the bias is still bearish, the larger moves may well be to the upside if long dollar positions are liquidated.

  • Dollar Strength Being Called into Question 23 February 2017

    The market is beginning to question just how strong the dollar should be. While the trend remains down, sharp moves are being triggered by minor events which indicate that traders are just not sure. Volatility is expected to increase as US fiscal policy is debated, while political risk in Europe adds fuel to the fire.

  • EUR/USD Analysis - 17 February 2017 17 February 2017

    On Wednesday, the Euro rallied. The rally pulled back from resistance at 1.0677 and is currently establishing support at 1.0640. The market’s outlook has been bullish for the dollar. But Trump administration actions may change this. US policy is at the focus of market's attention in the coming months.

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