Last week we looked at a short trade in the EUR/USD. That trade is still active and traders can continue to let that one play out. For those looking for another entry then I think we need to look at the 200-SMA on the 4-hr chart.
Enter short on a push to 1.1870 as that’s the 200 SMA. We are still looking for a break lower and a move back towards 1.1700.
EUR/USD 240 min Chart - EUR/USD is looking weak
Data Keeps Hurting the USD
After a sustained run of weakness in the USD, we have finally started to see strength coming back into the USD. A few weeks ago the FOMC suggested that rate hikes were well and truly coming and December was the target. All that needed to happen for a further rally was confirmation in the FOMC minutes.
Unfortunately that didn’t happen and it appeared that the decision on rates is still mixed among the members. That cast things into doubt and the USD suffered. Then on Friday we got confirmation of more weakness with a poor CPI figure and mixed retail sales.
As a result there is still some doubt around the rate of interest rate hikes. However that news is going to be well and truly incorporated into the market now. I suspect that we will continue to get some strength in the USD as the week plays outs.
Key for the Week - Quiet on the Data Front
After what has been a massive few weeks on the data front, this one is shaping up to be a little more quiet. That might be good news as we can get back to focusing on the technicals. That said there are some important EUR numbers including German ZEW as well as CPI.
Technical Analysis - The Key Levels
The EUR/USD has fallen away recently and we are now in a range between 1.1700 and 1.1850 While we popped slightly above the 1.1850 mark it wasn’t able to hold so I still think this range is valid until proven otherwise.
EUR/USD - Key Levels
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