Central Banks Again Drive the EUR/USD

EUR/USD Analysis 31 July 2018

EUR/USD Spot Price: 1.1654

Support - 1.1620, 1.1600, 1.1500

Resistance - 1.1700, 1.1740, 1.1800

Trade Ideas - The EUR/USD is Weak

  • Position: Short
  • Entry Point: 1.1740
  • Stop Loss: 1.1800
  • Take Profit: 1.1600

The EUR/USD keeps failing above 1.1700. I like a short 1.1740 with a stop loss at 1.1800 and a profit target of 1.1600.


EUR/USD 240 min Chart - EUR/USD is Weak

Central Banks Driving Forex Markets

The week ahead contains a number of key central bank decisions. We are going to be hearing from the US Federal Reserve, the BOE and the BOJ. And all have the potential to shock markets. For the EUR/USD, clearly the FOMC will be the major event.

However, it appears that this isn’t going to be a meeting that will see a rate hike. The Fed has projected the fact that they are looking at two more hikes this year. That is keeping with their policy of slow and steady rate rises. We might be able to gain some further insight into when future hikes will occur, although markets are doing a pretty good job of anticipating any moves at this stage.

On Friday we also have another big mover for the USD, which is US employment data. The Greenback has been strong and the US economy is going well. That keeps the pressure on the EUR/USD and that’s why we have the current downtrend. A good jobs report will see the EUR/USD fall away even further.

Key Economic Data

While the focus is on the major events, a key for the EUR/USD will probably be Eurozone CPI. We have been having a tough time trying to get inflation to move higher in Europe and the rate has been lagging.

The ECB likes to see inflation at between 2 and 3% annually and if analyst predictions are correct, we will remain at 2% this meeting. Right at the low end of the target band.

Technical Levels

The EUR/USD continues to struggle at overhead resistance. 1.1700 has been an important level and we continue to rotate around that price. I like the idea of selling any rallies as it also allows us to follow the trend which is down.

1.1740-50 is an important level and that’s where I would be looking to sell, if price can get back up there this week.


EUR/USD - Key Levels

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