ECB Minutes to Drive The EUR/USD

EUR/USD Analysis 20 August 2018

EUR/USD Spot Price: 1.1432

Support - 1.1400, 1.1310, 1.1300

Resistance - 1.1435, 1.1500, 1.1510

Trade Ideas - The EUR/USD is Weak

  • Position: Short
  • Entry Point: 1.1490
  • Stop Loss: 1.1550
  • Take Profit: 1.1400

We are still looking for a retrace in the EUR/USD so we will continue to target a sell near 1.1500 like last week. I want to short 1.1490 with a stop loss at 1.1550 and a profit target of 1.1400.

2018-08-20-eurusd-trade-ideas

EUR/USD 240 min Chart - EUR/USD is Weak

ECB Minutes in Focus

The EUR/USD managed to regain a little bit of lost ground last week, but not before it tested the lows at 1.1300. By week's end, the Euro had pulled back above 1.1400, but the trend remains bearish.

This week the key event will once again be the ECB minutes. At the last meeting the ongoing dovish tone of ECB President Mario Draghi weighed on the EUR/USD. If we get more of the same from the minutes then the short-term rally that we’ve seen, will certainly be in danger of a turnaround.

At the same time, we will also get the FOMC minutes this week, which presents a key risk to the EUR/USD. The FOMC have been incredibly hawkish in their approach to monetary policy and that is helping boost the USD. There might very well be more of the same in the week ahead.

Finally, central bankers from around the world will be meeting for the annual summit at Jackson Hole. New Fed boss Jerome Powell will be speaking for the first time and we often see markets go a bit quiet in anticipation.

Key Economic Data

On of the major data points this week will be Eurozone PMI. The ECB is looking to potentially raise rates in late 2019, however, there are still quite a few areas of concern in the broader economy.

We will get PMI data from a range of different Eurozone countries on Thursday and that will be a good indicator as to whether we are seeing some growth.

Technical Levels

The EUR/USD has been battling the 1.1400 level for some time now and it again is providing an important support level.

If we break 1.1400, there will be little holding us back from a sharp sell-off to 1.1300. Similarly, 1.1500 is the point we must crack for the EUR/USD to turn bullish. However, I suspect we will see plenty of selling below that level.

2018-08-20-eurusd-key-levels

EUR/USD - Key Levels

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