The EUR/USD managed to spike a little in Friday trade on the back of the jobs report. However the larger trend is now down. As such we need to start looking for short opportunities to ride the momentum.
Enter short on a push to 1.1775 as that’s a key resistance level. If we get USD strength coming back into the market then we have a good chance of taking out recent lows at 1.1700. If we break above 1.1900 then there might not be enough USD momentum at the moment.
EUR/USD 240 min Chart - EUR/USD is looking weak
USD Bounces but for How Long?
Last week the USD continued to drive higher until the all-important jobs number of Friday. There’s no doubt that the number disappointed investors with a net loss of 33,000 jobs in September. However there were reasons for that with hurricanes negatively impacting the final tally.
Regardless the USD dipped and that helped the EUR/USD regain some ground. However it appears that for now the downtrend is still well and truly intact.
Key for the Week - Fed FOMC Minutes and CPI
On the data front it’s a quiet week in Europe, with only Mario Draghi speaking in terms of top tier news. However for the USD we have to pay close attention to some key top level data, with both Fed FOMC Minutes being released along with CPI.
Markets have been paying very close attention to the rate at which the U.S. Federal Reserve is hoping to raise interest rates. As it stands projections have been moving forward and that's been a key driver of the USD. Similarly if there’s a strong inflation reading then that means chances are even higher that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen might have the impetus she requires to hike rates early.
Technical Analysis - The Key Levels
The EUR/USD has fallen away recently and we are now in a range between 1.1700 and 1.1850 Any break of those two levels will indicate a major direction move change in the short-term. The key one for the bears is 1.1700. If we are able to break down below that level and hold there’s a good chance that a move below 1.1600 can happen.
EUR/USD - Key Levels
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