I still think the downtrend is strong and I’m looking at a similar position to the previous week. I’m looking to enter at key resistance at 1.2000 with a stop loss at 1.2150 and a profit target of 1.1850.
EUR/USD 240 min Chart - Falling Away
Inflation the Key
The USD has been rising sharply over the last few weeks, however on Friday we finally ran into resistance. This coincided with the EUR/USD managing to find some support. Now the question is being asked as to whether this is just a pullback or whether we are finally turning the corner.
Much of the focus this week will be on how inflation is looking in the Eurozone. ECB President Mario Draghi has been doing everything he can to try and get inflation back up to their target rate of above 2%. So far they have reduced interest rates to record low levels. They have also been going full throttle with their bond buying program.
It is still questionable as to whether either of those measures are working. Certainly QE is still controversial and there are many that suggest it has been a failure. This week we get Eurozone CPI which will hopefully be above the predicted annual rate of 1.2%.
Key Economic Data
While CPI will be the headline act this week, there is some interest in the different data points from Germany. We will get German GDP which is the real engine room of Europe.
In the US Retail Sales will probably be the biggest data point, however this week will be a lot quieter for the dollar than the previous few.
1.1850 ended up being the turning point in the EUR/USD last week. We bounced off support and I am still looking at it as the major point that we need to cross before we get more downside.
To the upside 1.2000 is important and if we can break out above that point we might not be able to assume the downtrend is as strong as we had thought.
EUR/USD - Key Levels
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