ECB to Drive the EUR/USD

EUR/USD Analysis 5 November 2018

EUR/USD Spot Price: 1.1387

Support - 1.1300, 1.1200, 1.1100

Resistance - 1.1450, 1.1550, 1.1600

Trade-Ideas - The EUR/USD is Bearish

  • Position: Short
  • Entry Point: 1.1450
  • Stop Loss: 1.1550
  • Take Profit: 1.1300

I want to get short at 1.1450 with a stop loss at 1.1550 and a profit target of 1.1300.


EUR/USD 240 min Chart - EUR/USD is Bearish

FOCM in Focus

The EUR/USD has been trying its best to rally. However, each push to the upside gets met with more selling pressure.

Late last week, we saw a better than anticipated US employment figure, showing an increase in jobs of 250K.

This was a really strong figure and that stop the slide in the USD. The Greenback had rallied into some of its highest levels of the year, before a slew of weak manufacturing numbers and some trade fears, hurt its run.

This week, the FOMC is back with their official interest rate decision. There is not expected to be another hike in the month of November, however, the expectation that there will be a lift in rates in December, then two in 2019.

The last FOMC minutes maintained this stance and as such, all the attention will be on the FOMC statement to see if anything has changed.

Given the strong jobs result on Friday, I suspect that the hawkish tone coming out of the FOMC will be maintained.

We also have to pay attention to the US midterm elections which will be happening this week. Generally speaking, a strong showing by the Republicans will likely be seen as a positive for the economy and the USD.

Key Economic Data

There is very little in the way of top-tier economic data out of Europe this week. In the US, outside the FOMC we only have non-manufacturing PMI.

This is worth watching as the falls in the USD last week, came on the back of some poor PMI data.

Technical Levels

Given the downtrend in the EUR/USD at the moment, 1.1300 has now become the major focus to the downside. This was the prior swing low and it appears to be just a matter of time until we test it again.

Support turned resistant at 1.1450 is becoming very important now as that is where price stopped on the recent jump. If we test it again and it can’t hold, that would be a trigger for a sell-off into the lows.


EUR/USD - Key Levels

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