Is it time to listen to Mario Draghi and buy the Euro?

EUR/USD Analysis – 28 June 2017

EUR/USD Spot Price: 1.1360

Support: 1.1300 and 1.1333

Resistance: 1.13782

Trade Ideas
  • Position: Long
  • Entry Point: 1.1333
  • Take Profit: 1.1377
  • Stop Loss: 1.1300

Get long on a pullback below 1.1333, assuming there remains a bullish tone to the market throughout the European session.

Our initial profit target is near the session's high of 1.1377.

Should price break below the 1.1300 key support level and hold then we need to change our bias and assume price isn’t able to hold.


EUR/USD 15min Chart - EUR/USD is breaking out to new highs. Get long on pullbacks and look for a retest of the session highs.

Tuesday’s Session - Draghi Starts Getting Optimistic on the Euro

Tuesday’s session marked an important day for the EUR/USD with the currency pair nearing new 12 month highs and holding steady above the all important 1.1300 level.

Central banker’s featured heavily in the session, with both the ECB’s Mario Draghi and the Fed’s Janet Yellen making comments that will likely set the tone for the rest of the week.

Mario Draghi said he was ‘confident’ the ECB’s policies would ultimately restore inflation to the Eurozone, in a sign that the policymakers could be looking at potentially ending stimulus and ultimately raising interest rates from their record low levels.

At the same time Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, speaking in London with British Academy President Lord Nicholas Stern, said the Fed has learned its lesson from the recent financial crisis and has returned stability back to the banking system. There was a dovish tone to her comments, but overall there wasn’t any clear takeaways from the event.

The comments from Draghi, helped drive the EUR/USD to new highs and traders will be watching closely to see whether the currency pair can hold above 1.1300 and drive higher.

On the US political front, the Trump healthcare bill, which is a potential replacement to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), looks set to be delayed further as it still lacks support. This development weighed slightly on the USD.

Technical Analysis - 1.1300 is the Key Level

The key level to watch is 1.1300. Price has been unable to hold this level in more than

12 months and it remains and wait and see proposition.

The first upside target is the current 12 month high of 1.13659. Can price hold at these levels as the session and the week unfold?


EUR/USD Weekly Chart - The key level for the EUR/USD is 1.1300. If price holds above this level throughout the session, it means there is a bullish tone and opportunity to get long.

Key for the Week - Watch out for the Central Bankers

With Mario Draghi getting more bullish on the state of the Eurozone and signs that policymakers can start discussing withdrawing stimulus and looking toward interest rate hikes, means that the EUR/USD should have a positive tone for the rest of the week.

Watch out for more Central Bank comments from the ECB Forum on Central Banking on Wednesday.

Important Data to Watch this Week

  • Mario Draghi speaking again on Wednesday - watch for more hawkish comments on the Eurozone.
  • Central Bankers Mark Carney, Haruhiko Kuroda and Stephen Poloz are speaking at the same time as Mario Draghi at the ECB Forum on Central Banking.
  • US GDP and Unemployment Claims on Thursday.
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