Politics Shakes The EUR/USD

EUR/USD Analysis 4 June 2018

EUR/USD Spot Price: 1.1692

Support: 1.1650, 1.1618, 1.1600

Resistance: 1.1700, 1.1750, 1.1800

Trade Ideas - The EUR/USD Tumbles Some More

  • Position: Short
  • Entry Point: 1.1750
  • Stop Loss: 1.1850
  • Take Profit: 1.1600

The EUR/USD fell away sharply last week, before managing to regain its feet. We can look at a similar trade to last week given the price action. I’m looking to enter at key resistance at 1.1750 with a stop loss at 1.1850 and a profit target of 1.1600.


EUR/USD 240 min Chart - Heavy EUR/USD

What Can Stop the US Economy?

Despite all the politics, the US economy appears to be on an upward trajectory. On Friday we saw US employment come in stronger than expected across the board, with beats on the headlines number, the unemployment rate and wage growth. This is a real positive for the USD in what has already been in a strong uptrend.

At the same time, we also saw a positive result out of Europe with CPI beating expectations. CPI is creeping up towards the 2.0% level that the ECB would require to raise rates. First on the agenda is still winding back QE which might now be one step closer.

As we move into the new week, we are still focused on politics. The Italian crisis really hurt the EUR/USD last week, before things got patched up to a degree. While the new US steel and aluminum tariffs are certainly likely to stunt growth in some form. Any more negative headlines out of Europe are likely to really hurt the EUR this week.

Key Economic Data

This week is a little quieter on the economic data front. With no top level events scheduled. There are a number of US data points that are worth watching as they might add more fuel to the USD.

ISM non-manufacturing PMI and JOLTs job openings are the only market movers in my opinion. In what is another week that will be waiting on news to build momentum.

Technical Levels

1.1700 was the point at which the selling came into the EUR/USD last week. We tried on a couple of occasions to poke our head above this point, but price quickly got knocked back down.

Similarly, we couldn’t quite crack 1.1500 to the downside when we were in the midst of the big bear run after the Italian political scare. These two level are the keys to watch this week, with a break in either direction likely to be telling.


EUR/USD - Key Levels

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