With the USD bouncing we want to sell any spike in the EUR/USD. I want to short at 1.1625 with a stop loss at 1.1750 and a profit target of 1.1500.
EUR/USD 240 min Chart - EUR/USD is Weak
ECB and Tariffs in Focus
The EUR/USD has continued its bear run and things might still get worse before they get better.
A strong US employment report, lifted the USD on Friday, and that has seen the EUR/USD back at its recent lows.
This week much of the attention will continue to be around the US-China trade war, after US President Trump suggested he was ready to impose tariffs on the entire volume of Chinese exports to the US. That would be more than $500 billion.
The trade wars have been hurting markets, but the USD has remained strong throughout.
We also have the monthly ECB interest rate decision. Generally the ECB would be the biggest event of the week, but dove Draghi, has failed to make any real changes to economic policy and is happy to sit and wait for the time being.
Key Economic Data
The major data this week outside of the ECB, is US economic data. In particular we will get CPI, PPI and retail sales.
Thanks to the strong jobs report, we are looking at a rate rise in September. We suspect the CPI in particular will also be strong, which will further strengthen the case for a rise.
The EUR/USD has been hanging on to the 1.1540 level and it is shaping up as a big one. We can see an inverse head and shoulders pattern and that means that the pressure is on this level to the downside.
We could potentially look to short the break of 1.1540, or wait for a bounce back to recent resistance.
EUR/USD - Key Levels
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