The EUR/USD is weak and we need to continue to ride the downtrend. I’m looking to enter at key resistance at 1.1850 with a stop loss at 1.2000 and a profit target of 1.1600.
EUR/USD 240 min Chart - Falling Away
ECB Minutes in Focus
The USD has been surging and that has been putting a fair bit of pressure on the EUR/USD. Last week price tumbled from 1.2000 to testing the current support level at 1.1750.
This week we will be hearing from both the ECB and FOMC, via their monthly minutes. The minutes will give us an insight into the most recent meeting of the central banks. The ECB has been rather dovish and ECB President Mario Draghi failed to instill much confidence in the state of the economy in the Eurozone. Lacklustre inflation will be a key focus in the minutes along with any possible changes to QE.
Meanwhile, the US is a different story. The economy is clearly turning the corner and signs are pointing to more rate hikes ahead. The Federal Reserve is looking to move on rates in June and we will be all ears to see if in fact that is the case.
Key Economic Data
While much focus is on the central banks, there is a number of major releases this week from Germany. Germany is the engine room of the European economy. If Germany is going well it can often pull the rest of Europe along with it.
We will get an insight into German GDP this week and it could be the biggest market mover. The ECB has given little away in recent times and I suspect nothing will change this month.
1.1750 ended up being the point at which we finally slowed down the slide last week. Unfortunately, that was mainly due to the fact that it was the end of the week. As the EUR/USD continues to fall we will have to see if 1.1750 can hold up. If it can’t then there is every chance of a move to 1.1600. This appears even more likely as the USD is on a strong bull run at the moment.
EUR/USD - Key Levels
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