Trade Ideas - Trying to capitalize on USD weakness and EUR strength
Entry Point: 1.1960
Take Profit: 1.2060
Stop Loss: 1.1900
The EUR/USD is travelling along a solid trendline and given the USD weakness and apparent bullishness in the Euro, it’s worth trying to enter on or near that point.
Enter on a pullback at 1.1960 as that’s going to put us near our uptrend with an initial profit target just prior to the highs at 1.2060.
We’ll set our stop loss at 1.1900 and if it breaks this area I would assume the short term momentum has run its course.
EUR/USD 240 min Chart - EUR/USD is looking to hit 1.2060
USD Weakness Lifts the Euro
Last week was a big one on the news front, with a series of central banks coming out and making waves, along with the North Korea continued saga.
Safe havens spiked on Monday after we discovered North Korea had tested a hydrogen bomb, however unlike the previous scares markets didn’t retrace. That started to put the USD on shaky ground and by the end of the week that momentum had grown. By the end of the week, traders were looking to hedge for any risks that might play out over the weekend by selling USD and buying safe havens.
During the week EUR/USD traders were firmly focused on what Mario Draghi would have to say for himself as the ECB announced their interest rate decision. The focus was on whether or not the ECB would begin to taper their QE program with speculation that it might be announced early. As it turns out Draghi barely spoke about it and pushed it back until later in the year, yet traders didn’t seem to care. The Euro rallied strongly and this week we are waiting to see if that momentum will continue.
Key for the Week - US CPI
There’s quite a bit of data out this week and the main focus of interest will be US CPI. If we have another poor reading that means there is going to be less wiggle room for Janet Yellen and the Fed to raise interest rates. This is bound to put the USD under added pressure which will be bullish for the EUR/USD.
Technical Analysis - The Key Levels
The EUR/USD is still on a bullish uptrend. At the moment the key level is clearly the highs around 1.1207. We managed to test them last week on the back of not much else changing with the ECB. If we can get further USD weakness then I’ll be looking for a test of the highs and beyond.
EUR/USD - 240 min chart - Key Levels
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